Rain Overnight & Monday
Rain Overnight & Monday
Much of the rain has stayed well west and south during the day today. There was a round of rain this morning that moved through Northeastern Pennsylvania and northern areas of the Hudson Valley. Other than a passing shower here and there, it has been a warm humid day. It appears rain will hold off for while longer. Satellite loop shows moisture building to the southwest. The first arc of rain and downpours will push into Northeastern Pennsylvania and the northern areas of the Hudson Valley between 9pm and midnight or so.
On the regional radar view you can see rain in West Virginia pushing northeastward. There are some areas of heavier rain embedded.
HRRR OUTLOOK OVERNIGHT & MONDAY MORNING
The HRRR model has not been good at all but we will give it another try as it matches up well with other models. The first map is at midnight and the second is for 8am Monday.
The HRRR model actually develops a line of thunderstorms tomorrow morning extended from Southern New England across Long Island southwestward through New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania. I would expect rain to start in coastal areas around 3 or 4am and continue into Monday afternoon at least. The new NAM model is not very different from the HRRR which doesn’t mean they can’t both be overdone.
The radar view of the Nam is probably overdone to some degree but the idea is similar. Rain reaches the coast on this model between 3 and 4am while it rains for much of the night north and west into Pennsylvania and the Hudson Valley.
Rainfall amounts continue to look to be in the 1 to 2 inch rain area wide. Again I am cautious considering how everything lately winds up drying up and disappearing before it gets here.
Weather conditions genuinely improve on Tuesday with lingering showers early near the coast and then skies becoming partly sunny from west to east with temperatures reaching into the 80s. The warm weather pattern continues until the next cold front late this week. This sets us up for some cool weather next weekend.
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