European Model Closing Escape Route
European Model Closing Escape Route
We have pointed out over the last couple of weeks that there is an escape route for tropical storms and hurricanes in the Central Atlantic Ocean along 60 degrees west. This escape route has been the alley way for Hurricane Gaston and for Tropical Storm Ian to turn to the north and northeast well away from the Atlantic East Coast. However we have also pointed out that that that escape route appears to be closing soon and this could be key to what happens to Tropical Depression 12 as it makes its way westward.
Today’s run of the European model and in fact weather models in general in the last several days have been suggesting that the trough in the Central Atlantic is about to lift out and be replaced by a strong Atlantic upper high. You can see it on the map above for the European model for Friday morning how the escape route would take any tropical system north and north east when it gets to between 50 & 60 west. However all the weather models and in particular the European model, lift that trough out so that by early next week it is replaced by a strong upper high.
Now should this play out according to the European model plan, Tropical Depression 12 will miss the escape route and track westward underneath the upper high and probably make it at least 70 degrees west. However there are a number of questions not the least of which is what kind of tropical system will we be dealing with? The European model wants to strengthen it to a major hurricane at least on today’s European model afternoon run. The GFS model does nothing with this system at all as it weakens it to an open wave So before everyone goes off the deep end about today’s European model run, all this could be much ado about nothing if there is no tropical system to begin with.
Also even if something substantial makes it that far west, the upper air pattern is not all that favorable for something to come up the east coast especially on the GFS which has the westerlies dropping pretty far south along the east coast.
The European model and GFS model long term have different looks to the upper air pattern along the east coast but even the European model view would not be conducive to an east coast threat. The trough to the west would have to be deeper and show a much sharper profile to at least get winds alonft to south southwest along the east coast. There are way to many variables at this point to even be remotely concerned about this at this stage of the game. Carry on with late summer early fall activities. And for those of you who will stand with the European model being the end all model for forecasting, let me point out that Hermine was supposed to be either a 924 mb category 5 Hurricane in Southeast Texas or somewhere in Delaware Bay near Cape May New Jersey. Neither one happened and I’m still waiting.
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