HURRICANE WATCH FLORIDA COASTAL BEND
Hurricane Watch Florida Coastal Bend
Tropical Depression 9 Just Below Tropical Storm Strength
The development of Tropical Depression 9 has been very slow and the system continues to sit on the verge of tropical storm strength. However given the upper dynamics of low shear developing and increasingly good inflow, the National Hurricane Center has placed the coastal bend of Western Florida under a Hurricane Watch.
The official hurricane forecast for now does not bring this to hurricane strength though some hurricane models do strengthen this to a minimal hurricane before landfall. Given the history of this depression and the slowness of development, caution is advised in both directions regarding how strong this system becomes.
Judgiing from the satellite loops it appears that there could be multiple centers as there is twisting evident a full degree south of the actual advisory location. You can also see a twist in the clouds on the east side of a burst of convection that is occuring right now.
This is the latest GFS model for Sunday evening which has a tropical storm or minimal hurricane just southeast of Cape Cod. This model does not do the left hook turn as the earlier run did as it is less deep with the fractured cutoff to the southwest. Latest 18z hurricane model plots seem to be clustered around the same spot.
Regardless of how this turns out, we can say that surf conditions at the beaches will be rough right into Labor Day. For the latest on the earlier model runs read my JOESTRADAMUS post.
Here is my Tropical Weather Video from this morning with more
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