Tropical Depression 9 Gulf of Mexico Latest Tropical Weather Video Monday 08292016
Tropical Depression 9 Moving Westward
Tropical Depression 9 did not strengthen overnight and actually took on a bit of a ragged appearance. However looking at it this morning we see that it may be trying to organize a bit as thunderstorms seem to be blossoming some to the north of the circulation center. We will have to see this trend continue during the day.
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 83.9W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 83.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast today, followed by a slow northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be passing north of the north coast of western Cuba today, and moving farther into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over Cuba, with isolated amounts of 12 inches possible through Wednesday. These rains could cause flash floods and mudslides. Total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible over the southern Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys through Wednesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches could occur over coastal areas of southern Florida and the Keys. This rainfall may cause flooding and flash flooding.
Tropical Depression 9 Forecast Track
There isn’t too much change in the forecast track for Tropical Depression 9 as it heads into the North Central Gulf and then hooks to the right toward the Florida Coast. This is in line with most of the hurricane model tracks including the global models. Intensity is another matter as conditions are becoming more favorable. However the history with this tropical system has been a long and rather frustrating one to forecast due to dry air intrusions among other things. Shear is forecast to relax today and upper winds turning more south which brings an open flow from the Yucatan Channel. 90 degree water. Everything points to strengthening. We will wait to see what happens later today.
Tropical Depression 8 meanwhile is off the North Carolina coast. Tropical Storm Watches are up for coastal North Carolina. Here is the latest on Tropical Depression 8.
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