Hurricane Gaston Invest 99L Update
Hurricane Gaston Invest 99L Update
We can see from the satellite loop that convection continues to develop over Puerto Rico and the Domincan Republic. Weak Low pressure is located just offshore the northern coast of the D.R. Gale force winds are being produced well north and east of the center. There is a lack of a well defined core circulation here so we will continue to monitor the progress today. An air force plane is nearby and ready to investigate later this morning or this afternoon.
There have been no big changes in the weather model tracks with regard to this system. The European seems to be the one that makes the most sense to me at this point as it takes a tropical storm over South Florida and then up the west coast of Florida possibly as a minimal hurricane. Much of the hurricane model guidance seems to be clustered around this idea this morning.
Meanwhile we have Hurricane Gaston this morning with top winds of 75 mph moving northwestward into the open waters of the Atlantic. If you look north and west of the hurricane there is an upper low spinning away and this is likely to create hostile conditions going forward for Hurricane Gaston over the next 2 days or so.
..GASTON EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 43.3W ABOUT 1225 MI...1970 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gaston was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 43.3 West. Gaston is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast Friday night. Data from a NASA/NOAA Global Hawk unmanned aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure from the aircraft data is 988 mb (29.18 inches).
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