Gaston Strengthens Wave Organizes
Gaston Strengthens Hurricane By Wednesday
Wave Organizes East of Leewards
We see the strong tropical wave approaching the Leeward Islands. Latest satellite loops show showers and thunderstorms becoming more concentrated and increasing. This system continues to move to the west northwest. It appears that conditions will become more conducive for development once this system clears the islands and is east of the Bahamas. Weather models develop this system to varying degrees with the European model the most aggressive of the bunch in the longer term.
While this sytem heads westward it will be underneath a strengthening ridge along the east coast. This will keep the system moving west or west northwest into Sunday or until that ridge begins to breaks down. Both the GFS and European Model are in agreement with this idea though the European does much more with the wave. It develops it into a tropical storm before moving it over Southern Florida.
Now just because the European is forecasting something doesn’t mean it is correct but it has been fairly consistent in its view on this system while other models have been going all over the place. The Canadian which for days was going all over the place with this now has nothing at all. The GFS has been going back and forth on this for days. At this point I think the emphasis is going to be on watching the wave itself and seeing how it responds to somewhat favorable conditions for development over the weekend.
Gaston meanwhile continues to move right along to the west northwest and it continues to become better organized. It has developed a central core of convection and Gaston should strengthen to a hurricane overnight or on Wednesday.
North and west of Gaston is an upper low and this is going to create some complications down the road regarding intensity. However when we look at the upper air profile in the Atlantic, weather models continue to show a weakness developing in the Atlantic Ridge.
This should steer Gaston northward before it reaches 60 west longitude. Models have been consistent on this for days so we will continue to go with it. We will evaluate the overnight models and post a new you tube video in the morning.
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