Earl Nears Hurricane Strength
LATEST VIDEO AND MODEL ANALYSIS TROPICAL STORM EARL
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Earl Nears Hurricane Strength
Latest reports from an Air Force recon shows that Earl is getting close to hurricane strength. The satellite presentation continues to improve and there are indications of an eye that is coming and going. Earl is tracking just north of the coastline in the Bay of Honduras and will make landfall sometime later tonight or early Thursday morning in Belize. This gives Earl about another 12 hours or so to gain strength. Conditions are favorable for strengthening including a very low shear environment and very warm water temperatures in the upper 80s. An Air Force recon will be in and out of the storm through this evening.
Latest Earl Advisory
..EARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN BELIZE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 85.6W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. * Bay Islands, Honduras. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border. * North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 85.6 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands this afternoon, and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force reconnaissance plane currently investigating Earl has not measured winds of hurricane force. However, additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 hours or so, and Earl is expected to be a hurricane by the time it reaches Belize. Weakening is expected after the center of Earl moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) mainly to the north and east of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was 990 mb (29.23 inches).
Elsewhere in the tropics there are 2 tropical waves in the Atlantic moving westward. Both are being impacted by a strong upper low in the Central Atlantic which is creating hostile conditions for development.
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