Soaking Rainfall For Somebody Friday
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Soaking Rain For Somebody Friday
Models have been all over the place regarding Friday’s soaking rain which some models going north of New York City and some going south. Robust rainfall amounts are being produced by some models and less in others. This system certainly has the potential to produce a 2 to 3 inch soaking rain for somebody if it sets up right. Below are some model depictions on rainfall amounts.
GFS RAINFALL FORECAST
NAM RAINFALL FORECAST
NAM 4KM RAINFALL FORECAST
The NAM 4KM Model which is usually good with thunderstorms and fronts this time of year really goes hog wild with rainfall amounts of 4 or more inches over Long Island back to New York City and parts of Northeastern New Jersey. The standard NAM 12K is at a more reasonable inch or 2 and the GFS has less and further south. All models show a surface low that develops near the Delaware Coast. I think at this point it is going to be a matter of how the radar sets up. Model dynamics are supportive for big rains in cases like this. The European and Canadian models are similar to the NAM though they have the rainfall further north. Fighting all of this is the overall trend of the last few months of heavy rain areas setting up in Central and Southern New Jersey. So this event could be a test of that particular trend.
GFS SURFACE MAP FRIDAY MORNING
NAM SURFACE MAP FRIDAY MORNING
Timing is also another issue with the NAM very fast bringing rain in after midnight Thursday night while the European doesn’t bring rain in until daybreak. It has been a trend for weather systems to be faster than modeled. The NAM has been better at this overall. So we favor rain coming in during the early morning hours Friday and gradually ending from west to east during Friday afternoon. Certainly this breaks whatever heatwave is still going on and no 90 degree temperatures are forecast after Thursday.
We also see Saturday being dry and the better of the two weekend days. Another weather system might bring another round of rain later Sunday into Monday morning.
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