severe thunderstorm threat

Severe Thunderstorm Threat Monday Evening

Severe Thunderstorm Threat Monday Evening

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Severe Thunderstorm Threat Monday Evening

The Storm Prediction Center has shifted the severe weather threat area tonight further south and west as there appears to be a bit of a stalled warm front issue that is developing over New England. This is taking the severe weather and moving it south and west.

severe thunderstorm threat

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded and adjusted the severe weather risk to cover all of New Jersey, the Hudson Valley, most of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware as well as the western half of Long Island.

The HRRR model which has been god awful is trying to move thunderstorms through here around mid afternoon. We think this idea is wrong and the very latest run has now backed away from this idea and showing thunderstorm activity more likely in the evening much like the NAM model view.

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Be sure to always check the time stamp on the mpa above as it updates after 8am to match the risk area for later today. This map updates when refreshed and shows latest watches with the real time radar in the background.

Severe Thunderstorm Threat

Regional Radar Loop

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 HRRR Model & NAM Model Forecasts

There are differences in how the models handle the tropical air and the developing warm sector. The Nam model for example for the same time frame as the HRRR model ( 6pm tonight) are in two different worlds. The key to which model has the better view will lie in how far north the warm front gets. If the front gets pinned down along and over Southern New England, there may actually be some daytime heating issues there. It would seem from New York City southwest this is not going to be a problem.

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When you take it out a few hours later the NAM and the HRRR model are still apart in timing but the structure of the line seems to becoming into the NAM’s idea. It shows a strong line of thunderstorms moving through Northern New Jersey, NYC, Hudson Valley, and Long Island and then gradually moving southward from there.

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It should be interesting to see how this all plays out and that maybe for a change the heavy rains will occur in areas that desparately need it.

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Long Island

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For New Jersey

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Hudson Valley







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