Sunny Afternoon Severe Weather Thursday?

Sunny Afternoon Severe Weather Thursday?

Sunny Afternoon Severe Weather Thursday?

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Sunny Afternoon Severe Weather Thursday?

Marine Air Will Limit Severe Weather Extent

We are enjoying a rather nice mid June summer afternoon with lots of sunshine and some passing fair weather clouds. The satellite loops shows a spattering of clouds but there heavier clouds and overcast with the next disturbance are moving into the Ohio Valley this afternoon. There some patchy showers in the Ohio Valley at the moment but it does not look overly impressive.

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As we move through the afternoon you will begin  to see radar echos increase to the west but none of this moves in this afternoon or for tonight as well. Sunshine will continue into this evening. Some clouds will be moving in during the overnight. Temperatures are very warm this afternoon with readings right now in the mid 80s to near 90 in some places.

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 Sunny Afternoon Severe Weather Thursday?

With regards to Thursday the Storm Prediction Center has New Jersey in a slight risk for severe weather from Central New Jersey southward and a marginal risk for areas to the north of route 195. Now assuming the warm front sets up across Central New Jersey, the marine influence will limit the development of severe weather north of 195 and across Long Island, the Hudson Valley and Connecticut. If there is going to be severe weather on Thursday I think the best chances will be in Southern New Jersey again as well as Southeast Pennsylvania.

Sunny Afternoon Severe Weather Thursday?

NAM MODEL THURSDAY MORNING

Sunny Afternoon Severe Weather Thursday? nam28

The NAM model does show this idea I believe better than the other models in how it constructs the severe weather over Southern New Jersey Thursday midday. Rain to the north seems to make sense in my view. Weather conditions will begin to improve late Thursday afternoon as low pressure moves offshore. Temperatures are tricky for Thursday. Northern areas from NYC north and east might have a tough time getting to 70. Central and Southern New Jersey could see temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s at least before the front moves through. Friday through Sunday are shaping up to be three nice day with sunshine and highs each day into the 80s and nights in the comfortable upper 50s to middle 60s.

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