Beautiful Mid June Day

Fathers Day Weather Outlook

Fathers Day Weather Outlook

Coastal Low Development Well South

Fathers Day weather outlook seems to be improving as weather models beginning with the GFS overnight began shifting and suppressing the next weather system to our south. The Euro weather model overnight was showing a deepening (non tropical) coastal low moving up the coast and just offshore. However the Euro weather model has been very unreliable of late, and it seems to play catch up to the GFS when a trend develops. Over the last two months we have seen the Euro model make several attempts at major coastal lows which have all failed.

Fathers Day Weather Outlook Euro Model Saturday Night

euro120 Fathers Day Weather Outlook

This was the European weather model last night developing a low offshore that would track north and then northwestward toward our coast line. The error in the model in my view is that it over develops the upper feature

Fathers Day Weather Outlook

Euro Model Upper Air Sunday Night

euro144 Fathers Day Weather Outlook

Even with the over developed Euro look from last night the trend was to the east from prior runs. It is also way over developed verses the GFS overnight and today. The southern part of the trough is much weaker and suppressed by development to the northeast. The Euro model makes it all one big system which I believe is incorrect.

Fathers Day Weather Outlook GFS Weather Model Sunday Night

gfs144 Fathers Day Weather Outlook

gfs132 Fathers Day Weather Outlook

If the GFS model is correct, the weekend here will be fine with sunshine both Saturday and Sunday with temperatures near seasonal for this time of year both Saturday and Sunday. Both days would be good beach days. With regards to tropical development even if the Euro weather model is correct this is a totally a cold core system and tropical development WOULD NOT occur. If the GFS is correct than the southern part of that trough has a shot at becoming tropical off the southeast coast but it would have no impact on our weather outlook at all for the Father’s day weekend. We will analyze the Euro weather model when it is done running later this afternoon.

Fathers Day Weather Outlook Video Analysis

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