JOESTRADAMUS Weekend Long Range Outlook

JOESTRADAMUS Weekend Long Range Outlook

JOESTRADAMUS Weekend Long Range Outlook

With the weekend upon us let us take a look at what to expect both in the short and long range. Up front and center will be the risk for a thunderstorm or two Saturday afternoon and evening. A cold front is dropping down from upstate NY. The air mass overhead is very dry and will moisten some on Saturday but not by much. This is going leave thunderstorm development on the dynamics which are reasonable. The atmosphere is going to be unstable. To me the problem is that this is not the most ideal set up for severe weather.

JOESTRADAMUS Weekend Long Range Outlook

Saturday Dew Points

dewpoints JOESTRADAMUS Weekend Long Range Outlook

One of the issues for me regarding this is the dew points which are very dry across the area It isn’t until late in the afternoon that the dew points in New Jersey rise into the 60s. From New York City north and east the dew points are in the 50s. This to me argues against a widespread developing line of thunderstorms coming through.

JOESTRADAMUS Weekend Long Range Outlook

NAM Upper Air 2pm Saturday

nam18 JOESTRADAMUS Weekend Long Range Outlook

The upper air profile Saturday afternoon to me is also another yawn. What is moving through is rather weak in my view. It is certainly weaker than last Sunday and the one that past through on Wednesday. There is hardly a dent in the flow here. I’m just not impressed by this. Even the Storm Prediction Center acknowledges the uncertainty. Bottom line for me is go ahead with whatever you have planned and just keep an eye on things from early afternoon on. It is quite possible the activity will just be scattered around. Sunday looks like a good day with sun and clouds and highs into the 80s with low humidity and a gusty northwest wind.

JOESTRADAMUS Weekend Long Range Outlook

GFS Upper Air Forecast Monday 8am

gfs72 JOESTRADAMUS Weekend Long Range Outlook

Next week there really isn’t too much to worry about. A vortex in Eastern Canada is the driver which means nice weather & dry..maybe a few clouds around but more sun than anything else and temperatures in the 70s Monday & Tuesday. Nothing in the jet stream pattern next week screams heat or humidity unless we get the odd day here and there. No big storms or major fronts. The frontal boundary to our south should behave itself. Right now I’m thinking dry and reasonable all week with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s beginning on Wednesday. It might be a little warmer in interior areas of New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania depending on how much cloud cover is around.

As far as the tropics are concerned there isn’t much out there at the moment other than an upper low spinning in the Central Caribbean. Nothing to me suggests development of anything in the tropics anytime soon.




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