Tropical Storm Possible Gulf Of Mexico
Here we are barely through the first week of June and we may have our 3rd name tropical storm of the season. Conditions appear to be favorable for this to happen based on latest weather model runs.
Tropical Storm Possible Gulf Of Mexico Satellite Picture
Right now on the visible satellite picture you can see Tropical Depression Bonnie which reformed today off the North Carolina coast. To the far south in the Central Caribbean we have a large area of disturbed weather that is heading to the west northwest for the NW Caribbean. Typically this time of year the NW Caribbean is an area that is favorable for tropical storm development if conditions are favorable aloft. Such may be the case over the next several days. All weather models develop a low in the NW Caribbean and strengthen it as it heads into the Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday.
Tropical Storm Possible Gulf Of Mexico GFS Model Monday
The Euro model and the GFS model show a well developed surface low. The upper air structure in that area is favorable as the surface low sits under a strong upper high and a relatively low wind shear enviornment.
Tropical Storm Possible Gulf Of Mexico GFS Upper Air Shear Forecast
The upper flow across the United States is strong westerly and those westerly winds extend far to the south. This suggests any system that develops will move northeast toward the west coast of Florida early next week. Of course there are a number of other factors at play. The early part of the season sometimes causes these systems to be more subtropical in nature rather than purely tropical. Also the system will be moving along at a decent clip so there will be a limited amount of time this system will have to strengthen. Those strong westerly winds would keep this system moving right along to the northeast and if it does develop, it will have no impact on our weather at all.
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