HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER
WARM BUT WATCH THE WIND
One of the reasons why I do not like the spring from a work standpoint is that darn ocean. Water temperatures in the 50s and the tendency for cold fronts or frontal boundaries to set up nearby can make forecasting a nightmare. You have to deal with wild temperature ranges that can span 30 degrees or more. It can be a beach day in New Jersey and and sweatshirt day on Long Island and points north.
This Memorial Day Holiday weekend does not seem to have that sort of extreme to deal with but there is going to be a frontal boundary nearby. The question is whether that boundary will mean some showers or a thunderstorm in areas near the boundary. Also there is a question of how much (if any) cloud cover will we be dealing with. I have decided based on recent model trends that I will lean optimistic for most if not all of the weekend through I do this with a little reservation.
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER GFS SATURDAY
Saturday to me looks like the easiest day forecast wise of the holiday weekend. I think we will see no worse than a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures will be in the 80s. It will be cooler on Long Island by a few degrees especially at the shore but all in all it looks like a good day. The frontal boundary to the north is far enough north to keep any showers and thunderstorms away until late in the evening assuming the timing remains the same.
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER GFS SUNDAY
The boundary is weak but it might be strong enough to produce some cloud issues. South of the front through most of central and southern New Jersey it would mean a fairly decent day with sunshine and clouds and temperatures in the 80s. North of the boundary it could be cloudy to partly sunny with highs in the 70s to near 80. Im going to leave showers out of the forecast for Sunday. This is a much different look than a few day ago when models were building a big high down the coast. Now it is taking the high out to the east and it has far less impact.
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER GFS MONDAY
Monday if this is right is looking okay for most of the day. It would be very warm and humid with highs in the 80s. There would be a chance for a late day downpour or thunderstorm especially away from the coast. Most of the day would be clouds mixed with sun. The frontal boundary disappears as winds go to the west or southwest depending on where you are. For now this seems the safest way to go.
The other thing to pay attention to this weekend is a possible tropical low off the southeast coast of the US. This to me is not a big deal unless that moisture were to suddenly decide to shoot northward. Right now models rate the chances of that as low. The European model has the most pessimistic view as it brings showers from off the ocean inland and getting enhanced by a front to the west. That model has not exactly been doing well lately so we will leave that option out for the time being. But we still have to watch to see what that system does. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center regarding this.
MENTION JOE CIOFFI AND GET A 5% DISCOUNT
NOMINATED FOR AN APPY AWARD FOR BEST WEATHER APP!!
Don’t be without Meteorologist Joe Cioffi’s weather app. It is really a meteorologist app because you get my forecasts and my analysis and not some automated computer generated forecast based on the GFS model. This is why your app forecast changes every 6 hours. It is model driven with no human input at all. It gives you an icon, a temperature and no insight whatsoever.
It is a complete weather app to suit your forecast needs. All the weather information you need is right on your phone. Android or I-phone, use it to keep track of all the latest weather information and forecasts. This weather app is also free of advertising so you don’t have to worry about security issues with your device. An accurate forecast and no worries that your device is being compromised.
Use it in conjunction with my website and my facebook and twitter and you have complete weather coverage of all the latest weather and the long range outlook. The website has been redone and upgraded. Its easy to use and everything is archived so you can see how well Joe does or doesn’t do when it comes to forecasts and outlooks.
Just click on the google play button or the apple store button on the sidebar for my app which is on My Weather Concierge. Download the app for free. Subscribe to my forecasts on an ad free environment for just 99 cents a month.
Get my forecasts in the palm of your hand for less than the cost of a cup of Joe!