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Weekend Weather Woes

Weekend Weather Woes
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Weekend Weather Woes

Coastal Low Threat

Weather models are pointing to weather problems for the weekend. We continue to be under a split flow regime in the atmosphere with a more active southern jet developing. Up until now the northern stream has been a little more dominant which has kept us from getting deep into an onshore flow (except for that 1 week earlier in the month). The question is whether there is room and weather models for this coming weekend are indicating that there might very well be. Until then after some light rain for later Tuesday and Tuesday night, the rest of the week looks to be dry and uneventful with temperatures trending back toward normal highs for this time of year.

Weekend Weather Woes GFS Model Saturday Upper Air

gfs132 Weekend Weather Woes

Weekend Weather Woes Euro Model Sunday Morning Upper Air

euro144 Weekend Weather Woes

Both the Euro model and the GFS model (and the Canadian too) show this idea where the southern stream system attempts to “cut off” or separate from the main northern jet. If this happens we could be in a situation where a coastal low forms and keeps us in a wet onshore flow for several days. We are getting to the time of year where these systems can separate and hang around for days at a time.

Weekend Weather Woes GFS Sunday Morning Surface Map

gfs144 Weekend Weather Woes

Weekend Weather Woes Euro Model Sunday Morning Upper Air

euro144 Weekend Weather Woes

The surface looks of both the Euro Model & the GFS model are very similar here. Now a look like this would mean a prolonged periods of wind and rain. However I want to be cautious because we went through something like this 2 weeks ago which wound up playing out a bit differently than orignally modeled. Should this cut off as advertised it would mean deteriorating weather conditions over the weekend into next week with rather cool raw conditions. Unfortunately from the standpoint of tides we will be heading to a full moon on May 21st so this would raise the risk for coastal flooding this weekend and early next week.

Of course the question of it cutting off is key. Should the northern jet be more important it would be another case of a weather system being supressed further south than currently advertised.

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