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Thunderstorms Friday & Saturday
Severe Weather Risk Saturday
We have 2 cold fronts coming through over the next 3 days. The first one comes through later on Friday and Friday evening. The second one comes through later Saturday and Saturday evening. It is the second front that I think has the potential to produce severe weather here.
Severe Weather Risk Saturday Storm Prediction Center
There are several reasons why the second front will be more supportive for severe weather than the first. Tonight into Friday we will see some marine influence coming into the area which always does a good job cutting back thunderstorms especially along the coast. The second reason is that the dynamics with the the second front are far more impressive. We have a very strong short wave trough approaching with a strengthening jet and steep lapse rates (temperatures fall rapidly as you go higher) creating a very unstable atmosphere with no marine layer influence.
Severe Weather Risk NAM MODEL FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON
Severe Weather Risk Saturday NAM MODEL LATE SATURDAY
Here are the nam depictions with the two fronts and the model is definitely more impressive with the second line than the first. Other weather models are on the same page with this. Very chilly air follows Sunday and Monday with highs just in the upper 50s to lower 60s both days.
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