Euro Model Gloomy Look Next Week

Euro Model Gloomy Look Next Week


Yesterday’s Euro model painted a pretty ugly picture for next week with several systems impacting our weather all week long and one for the end of the week which was particularly intense looking especially aloft. Other models were not nearly as dire and the Euro model has not been handling the overall weather pattern as well as some of the other models. It seems like it has been overdoing some of the energy coming down from the north. Today’s run takes us through a less robust adventure for next week. However it does suggest as the GFS model does that the weather next week will be rather unsettled with more gray wet days then dry ones.

First off with regards to tonight and Friday, the Euro model weakens the lead shot of moisture for tonight into Friday morning. This seems to match the radar presentation this afternoon. It shows one area of rain which weakens as it moves northeast over us tonight. It never looked like a big deal anyway so we will see some rain. I think the first shot will be spotty in nature. Then it keeps it cloudy on Friday with a second area of rain for late Friday and Friday evening

Euro Model Gloomy Look Next Week

Sunday Morning Surface Map

euro72 Euro Model Gloomy Look Next Week

Saturday looks dry  from a rain standpoint but given the onshore flow I think the amount of sun will be limited. The Euro model also remains slower than the GFS by holding rain off until Sunday morning with the next weather system The other difference is that the Euro model brings through one shot of rain Sunday and then dries it out on Monday. The GFS model and the NAM model suggest a second wave of rain for Monday. The difference lies in the upper air as the Euro model moves the upper air disturbance involved along in the flow while the other models hang things back.

Euro Model Gloomy Look Next Week

Monday Morning Surface Map

euro96 Euro Model Gloomy Look Next Week

The onshore flow that starts the day Monday tends to relax as the day wears on which argues for some drying if this is correct. However the dry weather will be short lived if the Euro model is right as it fires up another low to the south and begins to lift it northward. Tuesday would be dry by this model and rain would return on Wednesday with low pressure offshore to the south of us.  This means another onshore flow set up keeping things damp dismal and raw.

Euro Model Gloomy Look Next Week

Wednesday Morning Surface Map

euro144 Euro Model Gloomy Look Next Week

None of these systems seems major in nature which is a good thing. The model today unlike yesterday is handling the northern energy differently. Instead of going crazy with driving a strong upper vortex southward into the Ohio Valley and to the Middle Atlantic Coast by the end of the week, it is less deep and swings the energy more to the east. This lessens the possibility of a more serious mid spring ocean low developing. This solution makes more sense than yesterday’s extreme solution and it does line up with the GFS model much better. If this is correct than weather conditions might get a little better late next week. However there is no guarantee of that because there is still more energy upstream in Canada that might want to dive southward and create problems for late next week. In fact the European still wants to bring an upper air storm to the coast. However with everything further east, low development would be offshore. This still could mean some showers possible when the upper air system moves through Thursday night into Friday. Lots of puzzle pieces out there and they are all still in play.




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