HRRR Model Snowfall Hurricane Force Gusts
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS SUNDAY MORNING
If the HRRR model is to be believed, get ready for some strong winds especially if you are right on the coast. The HRRR model shows gusts to hurricane force tomorrow morning between 5am & 8am along the New Jersey shore near Sandy Hook and over the east end of Long Island near Montauk. This is in response to the developing storm just east of Montauk Sunday morning and an incredibly tight pressure gradient.
HRRR MODEL WIND FORECASTS 6AM 8AM
Notice on the HRRR model at 8am gusts of 70 to 80 mph are indicated just offshore! Incredible if that happens as there will be wind gusts past hurricane force. There is a widespread area of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts covering the area tomorrow morning. So hang on for the ride!
Now with respect to snowfall the HRRR model is also showing areas of 1 to 2 inches of snow! Now picture if we get a burst of snow into that wind and you will wind up with blinding visibility for a short time Sunday morning. So if you are traveling during the early morning hours hang on to the steering wheel and travel with care.
The satellite loop shows the intense disturbance that will be responsible for this dropping southeastward from the Great Lakes and heading to the east coast. It is missing all the tropical moisture that moved through today which is good news because that prevents us from having one incredible storm Sunday morning.
Radar is showing the first area of rain moving out but as the evening progresses keep an eye on the regional and local radars. Take a look at the HRRR model simulated radar at 6am Sunday. It actually puts Long Island, New York City, and parts of Connecticut under the “comma head” of the developing storm center. If this is correct, we could 2 to 3 hours of blinding snow and very strong winds.
HRRR MODEL SIMULATED RADAR
The HRRR model total snowfall map shows areas of 1 to 2 inches of snow for Long Island and parts of Southeastern New York, Northern New Jersey, and Connecticut.
HRRR MODEL TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST
So look for deteriorating weather conditions tonight. Some thunderstorms could occur in all this after midnight as the development occurs and also when the comma head takes shape overnight. This is going to be a wild ride early Sunday morning.
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