HRRR Model Cutting Snow Amounts
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Based on the latest satellite, radar and surface observations I’m scaling snow amounts back. While there is still moisture to the south and west it remains unimpressive to me as it lifts northward. So far very little snow has fallen to the south. Some places have had the ground whitened but surface observations have been few and far between. No one is snowing even a solid light intensity let alone trying to find anyone reporting a moderate snow as of 8pm this evening. I think it is going to be hard pressed for the area to produce the kind of liquid amounts models were forecasting. Some were forecasting upwards to a half to three quarters of an inch. Where is it going to come from?
HRRR Model Cutting Snow Amounts Satellie Loop
The regional radar shows precipiation building but something is going on aloft that is keeping that snow from reaching the ground. The fact that temperatures are borderline requires the snow to come down hard to cool down the bottom of the atmosphere. Otherwise how are temperatures going to get down to the freezing mark let alone under 32?
With respect to the local radar views, the area of snow is blotchy and broken. Perhaps some of that will fill in after midnight but it is going to have to fill in fast and come down hard to even come close to the early amounts forecast.
HRRR Model Cutting Snow Amounts Local Radar Loops
The short range HRRR model which this morning was forecasting 4 inch or more amounts for most of Long Island has now cut amounts way back. I’m going to line up somewhat with this view.
HRRR Model Cutting Snow Amounts HRRR SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST
The HRRR model barely produces an inch west of New York City and confines the heaviest amounts of 3 to 4 inches to Eastern Long Island. If it were snowing everywhere right now that would be one thing. But it is at the point now where I have to take amounts down.
HRRR Model Cutting Snow Amounts Joe’s Snowfall Forecast
All week long I have been struggling with this. I wanted to stand against it and did until Wednesday. Then I fell into the model madness that set in over the next 3 days. Now it has come to this. I guess I should have stood my ground from the beginning. It’s never easy.
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