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This late in the game usually we have the idea of how the weather systems are moving and developing are locked in and we are working on the fine details. It is highly unusual that this late in the game, models are totally different as to how they are handling the forecast problem for the weekend. Part of me believes that the more data and more upgrades they do on the weather models, the worse they have become. That might be a statement reflecting my own personal frustration with having to play guessing games 4 times a day. The other reason which is specific to this situation is the fact that there are so many shortwaves of energy running around that models can’t figure out which ones to key on.
Weather Model Differences Continue Euro Model & RGEM Model
The global Canadian model matches up with the Euro Model and RGEM and is the most aggressive with snow late Sunday into Monday morning producing a wide band of 6 to 12 inches!
Weather Model Differences Continue Canadian Model
The problem is that there are 2 lows. The RGEM model and the Euro Model handle this issue the same way. The two models take that first low that you see far offshore and take it out to the east with a little precipitation during Saturday in parts of the Middle Atlantic states and then done. The energy from the west then forms a second low along the Carolina coast Sunday morning. Both these models match up very well. In fact the RGEM at 48 hours which is Sunday afternoon doesn’t have precip here yet. It would suggest that precipitation would not get here until Sunday evening with most of the precipitation falling as accumulating snow Sunday night.
Weather Model Differences Continue RGEM Model
Now let’s switch to the American side of the Equation with the NAM model and the GFS model. The NAM model puts all its eggs in the lead low and in fact has precipitation here by late Saturday. It says it rains Saturday night that changes to wet snow, ending by Sunday afternoon and done!
Weather Model Differences Continue NAM Model
The NAM would have wet snow falling here during the day on Sunday in which case none of it sticks due to the sun angle and then done shortly after Sunday evening. Then we have the late afternoon GFS model which splits the difference between the two.
Weather Model Differences Continue GFS Model
So what is a forecaster to do? I keep waiting for something to break here. The NAM model leads to entirely different weekend forecast than the other models. The GFS splitting difference doesn’t exactly help matters. Meanwhile you have the Euro model and RGEM model pointing to a more bullish snow scenario. I leaned toward the Euro model idea but at the same time I cut the snow amounts it produced in half. I figured the Canadian is too aggressive and I’m tossing it for now at least. The NAM model is banking on everything coming out 24 hours faster. Is it possible that it has the right idea? I can’t discount it. The GFS model by splitting the difference offers no help. I could do that on my own. I’m really hoping that tonight’s run settle this question once and for all. Spring arrives Sunday regardless and the only thing more white at the moment is the hair on my head!
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