Euro Model Winter Storm Threat Increasing

Euro Model Winter Storm Threat Increasing

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Overnight weather models grow even more bullish on the idea of a major late winter storm for the northeast. The Euro model was especially bullish as it takes a major storm northeastward, just off shore from the Virginia coast to just south of Cape Cod. It would imply that the bulk of the snow falls late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night when there are no sun angle issues. The storm on the European deepens to major status.

Euro Model Winter Storm Threat Increasing Sunday Night Surface Map

euro96

Euro Model Winter Storm Threat Increasing Upper Air Sunday Evening

euro96

The key remains the ridge in the west and last night’s Euro model continues to show a strong ridge inland of the west coast intact and not being dented by a storm off the coast of the Pacific northwest. This has been the model trend of the last two days. If it continues for one more run I will be probably putting out an early snowfall map. Based on the Euro model run last night here is the snowfall forecast map as generated by the model.

Euro Model Winter Storm Threat Increasing Euro Model Snowfall Forecast

EUROSNOW

It should be noted that this would be a heavy wet snow and if this comes to pass it could mean a real mess for some areas. Of course there are still variables at play in both the west and the east. One important variable will be time of day. The European lines this up for snow to fall at the perfect time. The NAM model and the Euro model are very similar except that the nam is 6 hours faster.

Euro Model Winter Storm Threat Increasing

Nam Model Forecast Sunday Afternoon

nam84 Euro Model Winter Storm Threat Increasing

Those six hours can make a huge difference in snow accumulations and could easily cut amounts in half even though the same amount of total precipitation falls. It will be interesting to see if the NAM model slows things down a little on the next run which starts later this morning.

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