JOESTRADAMUS Remains Unmoved

JOESTRADAMUS Remains Unmoved

JOESTRADAMUS Remains Unmoved



Overnight model runs continue to focus on the possibility of a storm developing along the east coast this weekend with the Euro model the most bullish. However even the Euro model overnight exposes the problem that exists and why JOESTRADAMUS remains unmoved. He stands against anything significant happening regarding snow and continues to stand against it.

After yesterday’s afternoon euro model run which showed a rather intense storm, I said I wanted to see at least 4 runs in a row. I didn’t even get 2. The overnight euro model shifted the development further east. In fact if you think back to 2 weeks ago, it looks rather similar. It actually looks similar to a number of systems we saw during the winter.

JOESTRADAMUS Remains Unmoved

Euro Model Shifts Colder Snow Bullish JOESTRADAMUS Remains Unmoved

euro144 JOESTRADAMUS Remains Unmoved

The top map is from yesterday’s day run for Monday morning while the bottom is from the Euro model run overnight. HUGE DIFFERENCES! Recall that I mentioned how the models for months in cases like this show a rather intense feature aloft lifting northward over us and creating a major storm. In almost every single case the models were over zealous with the strength of the southern stream energy. The Euro model overnight did what I expected it to do and that is it backed away from the idea of an intense southern feature lifting northward. Instead if you see the colors behind the surface. They reflect how the get stream looks. You have instead a southern stream system that does not lift northward. It gets ejected east northeastward. The best you can do with something like this is the coast gets hit with some backside precip, probably rain or snow, and since it would fall during the daytime Sunday it doesn’t stick. The amount of precipitation produced is light and inconsequential.


nao JOESTRADAMUS Remains Unmoved

Interestingly you have all the teleconnections strongly favorable. In fact they are about as favorable as they have been for months. The NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation is off the wall negative. The problem is that nothing lines up right in the upper air pattern.


euro144 JOESTRADAMUS Remains Unmoved

The northern part of the jet needs to interact enough with the south to get it to lift northward. With the trough position almost to 80 degrees west at this point, that isn’t going to happen until the system is well offshore. This is a different look from yesterday. You don’t want (for snow) a full phase too far west because then you get a low tracking to the west. That seems to be off the table at this point. So it comes down to whether the model is correct in keep the two streams separated enough where the south never makes it this far north. Since this has been the case so many times this winter, why should this case be any different. It should be noted that the GFS has an even weaker ridge west of the low at 50N 50W and if this is the case, the system will be weaker and suppressed even further south.

So now we adventure to today’s day run of models and wait to see if these recent trends continue. As I said yesterday and continue to state this morning, I remain unmoved and unimpressed.

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