JOESTRADAMUS Not Impressed Going Forward
There has been chatter in weather circles about long term indices pointing to colder weather returning to the east for the last 10 days or so of March. JOESTRADAMUS is decidedly underwhelmed by all this for a number of reasons. First let us look at those indices and what they are saying.
JOESTRADAMUS Not Impressed Going Forward LONG TERM INDICES
Now admittedly if this were a month ago or even 2 weeks ago, I might get a little excited over this. All the indices are forecast to go into modes that favor colder than normal temperatures. This includes the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO which is forecast to go sharply negative next week. Also the East Pacific Oscillation or EPO goes strongly negative and this favors colder weather in the east. The Pacific North America Pattern index is positive but not my much. This favors a ridge in the west but not a strong one and probably a trough somewhere in the east.
So why is JOESTRADAMUS underwhelmed by all this? Well for one thing we are talking about the second half of March and not the first half. Average temperatures continue their march higher by 1 degree every three or 4 days. Average highs will soon be in the 50s and average lows will soon be near or above freezing.
Secondly, we have been in an overall warm pattern. So we go below normal. BIG DEAL. All it needs to do is be below normal by a few degrees and the indices will be correct in their outlook. But from the standpoint of winter weather we need departures from normal of -10 to -15 or more at this time of year and that is a tough nut to crack.
Thirdly and this is I think the most important factor. You can have all the indices pointing in the direction you like, but if the troughs line up all wrong in the short range, what difference does it make?
JOESTRADAMUS Not Impressed Going Forward GFS LONG TERM DAY 12-13
For example, this upper air forecast by the unreliable GFS model around day 12 or 13 does suggest some sort of cold intrusion into the eastern US at some point around March 21-22. BIG DEAL. A look like this would just mean a cold front going by and not much else. I think we are at the point where we can stop looking at the long range the same way we look at it in January or February. If something were to happen it is not going to show up (if it does at all) until we are well inside day 7. And we are getting to the point now where everything would have to line up perfectly. It would have to snow between the hours of 6pm and 8am to avoid sun angle issues. The air coming down would have to be super cold. Tracks of storm would need to be almost perfect to overcome other short term factors. The bottom line is that despite what the indicators say, I can’t get worked about about anything in the long term at this point. You are going to have to prove it to me at this stage of the game. IT IS GOING TO HAVE TO BE AN ALMOST ABSOLUTELY PERFECT SETUP if it happens at all!
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