Euro Model Warm Bias Long Range Outlook

Euro Model Warm Bias Long Range


Clearly we continue with a warmer than normal pattern. Nothing in the long range outlook on either the Euro Model or GFS model suggests otherwise. The upper air pattern features a mean ridge in the east and a mean trough in the west and that pretty much sums things up over the next 10 days or longer. This doesn’t mean not stop warmth and nice weather. Granted there will be some stretches like the one this week that began today and carries us through Thursday. There will be minor interruptions with back door cold fronts and occasional systems coming in from the west with showers. For the most part it is a March springtime pattern and no cold air to speak of anytime soon.

Euro Model Warm Bias Long Range UPPER AIR WEDNESDAY & SATURDAY

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The Euro model upper air for Thursday and for Saturday of this week. The Thursday jet stream view has the ridge in the east and very strong. There is a system in the northern stream moving along that pushes a front through here early on Friday. Much of the energy with that goes to our north. It doesn’t appear to me at this point that the front will produce anything more than a shower as low pressure sets up to the northeast and the high winds up building southward over time.


euro96 Euro Model Warm Bias Long Range euro120 Euro Model Warm Bias Long Range

With the high going to off the New Jersey coast I would expect improving weather conditions on Friday from the standpoint of clouds and early showers. Saturday looks like a half way decent day with sunshine and temperatures milder than normal but probably holding in the 50s. The next weather system that approaches goes from Texas to the Great Lakes. I think showers will probably hold off until late Sunday or Sunday night and continuing into Monday.

Euro Model Warm Bias Long Range UPPER AIR AND SURFACE MONDAY MARCH 14th

euro168 Euro Model Warm Bias Long Range euro1681 Euro Model Warm Bias Long Range

When you look at the upper air map on the Euro model for next Monday you can see where the trough and ridges are reloading. They are pretty much in the same spots. The trough in the west is about to fire off another system inland while the ridge in the east is getting ready to build yet again.

Euro Model Warm Bias Long Range European Day 10 UPPER AIR


Beyond the 10 day period there are a few things happening that might move a few things around for the last week or so of the month of March. However there really is nothing that I can point to that at this point suggests anything specific. Canada still appears to be cut off from any cold flow in the longer term. There are rising pressures in the Atlantic Ocean up to Greenland. However there is no sign of any flow from the north developing from Canada into the United States. For now all we can say is that spring has arrived early. No major storms are on the horizon.

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