Snowfall Forecast Friday Updated
Models have not changed very much during today so far. We have seen some slight northward adjustments on the Euro Model with slightly higher liquid precipitation being indicated. However we still remain on the edge of a developing major storm. The problem is that the storm is not going to be able to lift northward from the Carolinas. Instead it will move more to the east than north. Models are showing more than the usual amount of precipitation on the northern edge of the storm. This gives us some pause. On the other side of the ledger are some of the numerical models that seem to want to produce 3 to 6 inch snow amounts over a large area from Central and Southern New Jersey Long Island and coastal Connecticut. I was having a tough time with this. Some of those numerical models for whatever reason were producing 6 inch plus snows for Long Island and Coastal New Jersey. We are going to discount this because we are not seeing any significant northward jog in the storm track at all. I was actually quite surprised that the models were doing this.
Snowfall Forecast Friday Updated
That said here is my updated forecast maps. I lowered amounts slightly to the north and west of the coast and went for 2 to 3 inches for Long Island and Coastal New Jersey. A coating to an inch seems likely in areas north and west of the coast. One issue is how much of the snow from the Ohio Valley survives the trip over the mountains of Pennsylvania. Usually that snow winds up drying out before it gets here. Models seem to be holding on to this snow. That is a factor we will have to watch for those areas. If that snow holds together amounts there could be higher. Snow should begin in the early morning hours on Friday so with temperatures likely to be in the low to mid 20s, snow will make roads slick for the morning commute on Friday.
Snowfall Forecast Friday Updated NAM model 10am Friday
This is the new NAM that is hot off the presses for Friday morning 10am. It shows a developing storm along the North Carolina coast. It should be noted that through this point, the nam shows no snow accumulation of consequence north and east of Central New Jersey. In fact the NAM moves it straight east and snow is over with by lunch time Friday in most areas. That is assuming that the model is right as other models prolong snow into Friday evening.
Snowfall Forecast Friday Updated VIDEO ANALYSIS
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