Long Range Winters Last Gasp
A few days ago models were pointing to colder weather to be the primary player for the first part of the month of March. However models have now backed away from that idea. If this were the end of January we could say that we had plenty of time but this is the end of February. Time now becomes the enemy of winter weather lovers. At this stage I’m thinking that there is room for maybe one more winter time threat in the next few weeks. However judging by the kind of winter it has been, everything would have to line up perfectly and that is a very tall order indeed.
Long Range Winters Last Gasp Next Tuesday Jet Stream
At first glance this is not a horrible set up however it is different from what it looked like on Sunday. Models were actually dropping that vortex southward and bringing down very cold air into the midwest and Northeast. Instead it seems to barely get here if at all. Now with this set up some colder air is likely to come in later next week perhaps beginning on Tuesday. But the look is different from what was advertised.
Long Range Winters Last Gasp Long Term Indicators
Actually the long term indices that measure blocking (or lack there of) are not that bad going into the first week of March. The Pacific North America Pattern is strongly positive which means a strong ridge in the west continues. The NAO goes negative for a few days next week and then is just above neutral for the rest of next week. And the East Pacific Oscillation index is neutral to negative as we move through next week which favors a trend to colder.
Long Range Winters Last Gasp East Pacific Oscillation
Without pointing to anything too specific, the pattern has been one where it keeps loading up every week or so, and models would probably be pointing to something later next week. The upper air setup is not that different from what we have seen over the past number of weeks so I suspect the same issues with the other systems will come up with this one. Namely there will be a lot of pieces of energy running around and each model will be keying in on different pieces producing different outcomes.
Long Range Winters Last Gasp UPPER AIR FRIDAY MARCH 4, 2016
This takes us to March 4th on the calendar so after that it isn’t going to be much longer before March takes us into the new spring season. The clock on the winter is definitely ticking and remember that meteorological spring begins on March 1st which is a week from today!
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