Weather Models Continue Adjusting

Weather Models Continue Adjusting

Weather Models Continue Adjusting


Even though storm signals are continuing for the middle of next week, there still is a lot of uncertainty regarding how this all is going to play out. The European model today made a jump to a weaker look with the coastal low that is forecast for the East Coast. The GFS made a similar adjustment on its run. The Canadian on the other hand has been no where over the last number of days has jumped to a coast hugger look, right at the time the other models moved away from it.

Weather Models Continue Adjusting EUROPEAN GFS COMPARISON

GFS138 Weather Models Continue Adjusting

euro144 Weather Models Continue Adjusting

The problem is twofold. Firstly we have numerous shortwaves running around as evidenced on both models. This has been a signature of the entire winter season. Models seem to key on different shortwaves on every run. Sometimes they phase on some runs and we see deep lows. On other runs as short waves time out differently they don’t phase at all. The European on this run has moved away from the phased look and as a result has a coastal offshore track with a flatter look to it.

This does not mean that the current run is the correct solution because we are likely to see even more changes in subsequent runs. We could very well go to a more phased look. This would result in a deeper coastal low further to the west. I certainly can’t rule that out. I remember back in the days before the blizzard that the models lost it somewhat about 5 days for a couple of runs as it dealt with this very issue. Ultimately nothing was resolved from a practical forecast standpoint for our area until the last minute.

Weather Models Continue Adjusting GFS EUROPEAN SURFACE COMPARISON

GFS138 Weather Models Continue Adjusting euro144 Weather Models Continue Adjusting

The surface maps on both models differ in the details with the European about 6 to 10 hours slower than the GFS. Another issue is cold air. We do not have a true arctic air mass setting up to the north. The cold air is marginal. However this winter in several events, we have seen cold air being a little more important. Will we see a repeat of that this time. The High to the north does move out from Quebec on both models so this is a concern. How models handle that will be another key to all this.

The bottom line is that we are still no closer to resolving the important issues regarding this event. We will just have to keep plugging away over the next several days until models settle on the phasing issue as well as which short waves are going to dominate. How the jet stream ultimately sets up will make big differences for some areas.  All solutions remain on the table in my view including today’s.

Longer term we see some very interesting developements. We have seen 2 major arctic warming events and both have led to quick shots of very cold air. We had one in the beginning of January and the other last weekend that caused records to fall. The GFS has been telegraphing another polar vortex to push southward. Now it should be noted that the European handles this differently so it remains to be seen how real this is

Weather Models Continue Adjusting LONG RANGE POLAR VORTEX INVASION NUMBER 3?

gfs180 Weather Models Continue Adjusting








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