Arctic Express Approaching
The first of two shots of cold air have arrived. We are seeing sunshine and clouds going on this afternoon. Satellite and radar are showing some scattered snow showers running around and this will be pretty much the deal for the rest of the afternoon and tonight. Temperatures are holding in the 20s Now that we are below freezing we won’t be back above 32 until later Monday night with the next storm system approaching (HINT: RAIN!)
Arctic Express Approaching Friday Morning Lows
Lows tonight across the area will be in the middle teens to single digits inland. This first shot of cold air is fairly cold but it is the second shot that will send temperatures down to record lows here Sunday morning. Many areas will hit 0 to 5 below zero including coastal locations.
Arctic Express Approaching Sunday Morning Lows
If you follow the clouds on the satellite loop you can see the flow right now is coming out of Central Canada. Over the next few days a polar vortex forming over Hudson Bay will strengthen and move southeastward and pass right over the northeast. This means the core of the arctic air comes right overhead with little chance to modify. How low temperatures get in urban areas will depend on the wind direction. A north northwest wind down the Hudson Valley will bring the coldest air. A wind with a more westerly component will cause the temperatures to fall only so far and then stop before they get to zero. Sunday’s highs won’t get out of the 10 to 15 degree range and some inland areas may not even break 10.
Arctic Express Approaching Satellite & Radar Loops
Monday morning will be another bitter cold morning with lows in the single digits and low teens. However with the arctic high moving out and no blocking to keep cold air in, temperatures Monday will rebound back to freezing by the end of the day and at least in the 40s on Tuesday. Then next storm system looks right now to take a track just inland of the coast which means its rain. In fact it is quite possible that despite the extreme cold, where precipitation arrives late Monday night, you won’t see a snowflake or an ice pellet.
Arctic Express Approaching European Snowfall Forecast Map
Now this outcome is not written in stone yet. Models seem to be converging on an inland low idea with no cold air. Unless the upper air structure is weaker and cold air somehow holds in longer, it could alter the forecast somewhat. But for now it would appear that the next event is all rain. In fact the low track straight north into Vermont would mean rain all the way up to Maine. Snows will be confined to the west side of the low track but that may only cover the western half of New York and the western half of Pennsylvania. At least that’s the way it looks at this point.
HERE IS MY LONG RANGE VIDEO FROM LAST NIGHT ON THE MODELS AND THE LONG RANGE
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