European Model verses GFS Model On Next Week
The European weather model last night continued consistent within itself from yesterday’s day run and it shows a different outcome from the GFS. The differences lie on how the models handle the lead system that moves off the southeast coast of the United States this weekend. The European lifts that storm northeastward as shown on the upper air maps below for day 5.
European Model verses GFS Model
How the European resolves the dilemma for next week is vastly different. The model takes the first storm off the southeast coast and it begins interacting with the very deep upper low in the Ohio Valley. The result is that the snow from the coastal system is pulled back westward to about New York City and the immediate coast.
European Model verses GFS Model Euro Snowfall Forecast
Now bear in mind that this is the RUN TOTAL snowfall that includes 1 to 2 inches from tonight into Friday morning so you need to subtract that out. It would still bring back a few inches to just west of New York City and 6 plus from Central Long Island and Central Connecticut eastward. This run was also a little to the left of the prior run.
Now what does all this mean. Obviously we can’t even begin to determine how much value there is in the forecast until we figure out which model is correct on the behavior of the first ocean storm. If the the first storm this weekend becomes the primary feature then we need to see how it interacts with that upper air storm in the Ohio Valley. Will that upper low draw the coastal storm further left?
If the GFS is correct that the first storm gets ejected out as a weak system, then we have to see how it evolves the second system later Tuesday into Wednesday as that will then become the primary focus. The European’s solution of the first means no room for the second, while the GFS would mean exactly the opposite. Day runs will hopefully shed more light on this. In the meantime we have late tonight into Friday morning’s possible wet snowfall to contend with.
With regards to the next week here is the GFS overnight analysis with a little RGEM mixed in.
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