NCEP Models Storm Signals Confusion

NCEP Models Storm Signals Confusion


Overnight model runs are throwing all sorts of signals all over the place which really leads to all sorts of forecast confusion. Usually at this point it is wise from a forecast standpoint to take a step back and just watch things evolve rather than try to figure this out exactly. As we have mentioned in numerous long range posts lately that the volatility is high. It manifests itself with run to run swings with big storms on some runs and not on others. The best way to handle this is to just wait for some clear trend to emerge.

NCEP Models Storm Signals Confusion Long Range GFS & European

euro192 ncep models gfs186 ncep models

gfs186 ncep models

Here are the last 2 runs of the GFS and the last run of the European. All three models show a major storm on the map with the European also showing a major storm going up the Appalachians and into Eastern Canada. It is just a little slower in getting there but I has the idea. Now there are all sorts of upstream complications in the pattern and before we start going off the deep end, I think it is just better to sit an wait a bit there. Some variations of the European have the low more like the GFS. Cold air could be an issue for the coast given the lack of a high to the north and low pressure near Lake Huron which might favor more of a coast hugger. But I’m not going to lose sleep over this at the moment.

NCEP Models Storm Signals Confusion Upper Air Pattern European Day 9

euro216 ncep models

All the models show a very deep trough but we should point out that the trough position that is setting up on the European is along 90 west and that doesn’t not necessarily favor snow for the coast. But again don’t draw any conclusions yet from any of this at the moment. The pattern is dynamic and lots of things may still evolve out of all of this.








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