NCEP Models European Model Comparison

NCEP Models European Model Comparison


This afternoon’s NCEP models & the European Model continue to circle around the idea of some sort of storm development for the East Coast however as usual models differ in the details and they seem to center around the speed of a lead southern short wave trough that the GFS runs out a little ahead of the European. The GFS long range model sees to have a distinct feature that the model keys on and deepens a surface low up the coast for early next week. The European has that feature much less defined and slower than the GFS. What does this mean with respect to our weather?

NCEP Models European Model Comparison

gfs168 ncep models

euro168 ncep models


Well among other things the models view that has evolved over the past few days has shifted somewhat to the European’s idea. The mean trough position on the European is well to the west of the coast. This is not a trough position that is favorable for east coast snow storms. It is simply too far to the west. The result of this is while cold air would build in to the Northeast Sunday and Monday (which both models show) that cold air mass will also eventually pull out. Also the strength of the trough in the Great Lakes region suggests that a surface low will be present there which will further make for unfavorable conditions for snow.

The GFS speed of the the lead system is important because it allows a more well defined coastal low to develop and hold together as it moves northeastward. This is the reason why the model produces snow for areas from New York City northward with the heaviest snows to the north of the coast.

NCEP Models GFS Model Forecast

gfs168 ncep models

The GFS implication here is that the coastal low is more imporant and it gradually takes over as the sole system once it is off the New England coast. Because the European is a good 12 hours slower, the trough to the west becomes the dominant player which means that it would eventually favor the primary low in the Great Lakes to hold on for way too long. This would mean rain more than anything else. Take a look at the difference in the snowfall forecast maps.

NCEP Models European Model Comparison

gfssnow ncep models eurosnow1 ncep models

Right now we are still in the world of uncertainty as models continue to react to all the atmospheric chaos and volatility. It does seem to me that the trough position is going to set up pretty far to the west. Ideally you want the trough to be along or just west of 80 west to give you both the room for something to happen and to keep cold air in place in the east. The European seems to have the better grasp of reality here. Such is the volatile world of weather this winter.

Meanwhile the Groundhog rears its head tomorrow for the annual shadow charade. Here are my recommendations on what to do with a good groundhog.








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