GFS Long Range Model Takes A Shift

GFS Long Range Model Takes A Shift


Before I get into this post about the late afternoon GFS long range model I want to make this point. To those of you that put up comments such as “Winter is Over” and other related stuff, please tell me what meteorological reason you have for posting this. I for the life of me cannot understand this sort of run to run roller coaster ride you put yourself through. Did the Blizzard of 2016 teach you anything about the kind of winter this is. This is NOT a winter like the last 2 and not like any winter in the last 10. It is its own unique animal. You need to approach your outlook differently. This is not a winter of prolonged unrelenting cold. This is a winter of volatility and wide swings in a very chaotic pattern. It is being dictated by El Nino on one side, and a big stratospheric warming on the other and the battle has been back and forth. We have seen record highs followed by shots of cold and a record breaking snowstorm. Now we have more adventure ahead. If you are looking for unrelenting cold like last year, your expectations are misguided.

Okay now that I’ve had my moment the late afternoon GFS offers an interesting development that, while a little bit out there at the moment, is not impossible. Take a look at the new late afternoon GFS and how it stands against the prior runs of the GFS and the European model. What it is suggesting is that the trough in the west is not nearly as deep and much more progressive. Now IF this is the case..and its a big IF…what are the implications. Well for one it allows the lead shortwave to maintain a stronger identity which is important. It also argues that there is a 2 storm solution here vs the European. I think that view right now is a long shot however it should be noted that the European has been backing away from deep ocean lows in prior runs as the view of the upper air pattern changed. Is the day run GFS suggesting that more change is coming? Possibly!

GFS Long Range Model Upper Air View

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gfs168 ncep models gfs long range

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Okay so what does this mean. Well if this new idea of the GFS is correct it would allow cold air to build down into the East from Upstate NY and New England with more high pressure to the north. Low pressure will come out of the Gulf States and ride up the Appalachians on this run and redevelop off the Virginia coast.

GFS Long Range Model Surface View

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Now I’m NOT SOLD on this yet. But given how the upper air look has changed over the last few days, it would not be a surprise to see this change some more. Or this could be a one run wonder. So we look forward to the next runs. By the way the Canadian model had been advertising this idea for awhile so the GFS is not standing alone with this. Many runs to go.







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