JOESTRADAMUS Not Backing Off

JOESTRADAMUS Not Backing Off Right Now

JOESTRADAMUS Not Backing Off Right Now

With all the model information and analysis going on all day long, we are still early in the game. This is a rare time in my forecast exeperience where I am actually more confident in the forecast for the areas exepcted to get over 12 inches and less confident in the areas getting less. This is many ways is like the half blizzard last year where there was a sharp cut off from a coating to a foot that spanned about 20 miles from west to east. This time around it is a sharp cutoff line that runs east west as we look at areas from north to south!

JOESTRADAMUS Not Backing Off Right Now

LATE AFTERNOON GFS MODEL

gfs54 JOESTRADAMUS Not Backing OffGFS541 JOESTRADAMUS Not Backing Off

This is the late afternoon GFS run. The model shifted slightly further north with the northern fringe of the snow shield and it shows heavy snows over Long Island back into Northern New Jersey. What is happening is the low east north east of the Virginia coast is going to redevelop to the east. The issue is how fast does that happen. Does that low closer to the coast remain there longer before it redevelops to the east. I believe this is the issue that models are struggling with particularly the NAM model which holds on to that low for quite a long time. This allows the precip shield on the nam to push well north and west of the coast.

JOESTRADAMUS Not Backing Off Right Now

LATE AFTERNOON NAM MODEL

nam54 JOESTRADAMUS Not Backing Off

Now we should point out that the European says there is no such problem as the model takes the low off North Carolina coast and sends it east northeast and gone. That model shifted everything further south on the day run and has the northern edge of no snow not that far inland of the coast.

I keep coming back to last weekends low which at the very last minute wound up being more tucked on to the coast and gave us a cheap thrill coating to an inch. This sits in the back of my mind. At this point I still feel pretty comfortable with the snowfall forecast map I put out yesterday. I did adjust the northern areas a little further south this morning but the rest of the area remains the same.

JOESTRADAMUS Not Backing Off Right Now

SNOWFALL FORECAST

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So from her we will simply continuing to monitor the situation. One thing about the NAM that should be noted. It has snow to New York City by midnight Friday night. It is a good 8 hours faster than the other models in terms of speed. The model says that high pressure to the north is weaker than what the other models are forecasting. If precipitation begins accelerating northeast faster, it could be the first signs that the NAM may be on to something. If it doesn’t than it certainly favors a less aggressive solution.

For review here are last night’s videos of the GFS/NAM & European analysis. No Changes in my short range forecast outlook. Skies will be clear tonight with lows in the teens to near 20. Sunshine giving way to arriving clouds with highs in the 20s to near 30 for Friday.

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECASTS

JOIN JOESTRADAMUS ON YOUTUBE!

LATEST JOESTRADAMUS ON THE LONG RANGE

LONG ISLAND WEATHER

NEW YORK WEATHER

 

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Blizzard Watch Continues JOESTRADAMUS Not Backing Off

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Blizzard Watch Continues

JOESTRADAMUS Not Backing Off