Coastal Flooding Beach Erosion
Regarding the prospects for the weekend storm lets lay aside the snow issue for a moment. Regardless of how this turns out for snowfall on thing that appears certain to me is that this could be a very serious coastal flooding beach erosion issue for the New Jersey Shore and the Long Island shore lines. Saturday is a full moon and you will have gale to storm force winds offshore with a major storm in the ocean to our east and south. Coastal residents should be advised of the possibility of at least moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion. This might wind up being the first noreaster since Hurricane Sandy to line up with a full moon and have a northeast fetch of winds for a long period of time (over 36 hours). This could encompass several tide cycles over the weekend.
Coastal Flooding Beach Erosion GFS Model
This is the new GFS model run from today. It is still not quite done yet but I’m using it to illustrate the set up for coastal flooding. Models are clustering around an offshore track that puts Southern New England south to Delmarva in an area of serious coastal flooding. Deep low pressure to the south couples with strong high pressure to the north. There is a very tight pressure gradient here that will easily produce Northeast gales of 40 knots or more. The track favors this continuing all day Saturday into Saturday night.
This is very early in the game but we should start to get more clues on the possibility of coastal flooding beach erosion as we head toward the end of the week.
Now with regards to the longer term here is the latest GFS weather video analysis from the overnight model run.
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