CHEAP THRILL SNOW POSSIBILITY
Is there a cheap thrill snow possibility for later Sunday and Sunday night? Well according to the models trends of the last 2 days and especially today, maybe, just maybe, there is.
Latest satellite loop shows the beginning of a storm that is going to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. That storm will cross north Florida tomorrow and head up the east coast tomorrow. This is the same storm that the GFS model a few days ago showed threatening the east coast. Now we have noticed over the last few months in cases of waves offshore, that they have trended west when reality set in. In those case what looked dry wound up putting us in clouds and even in a little bit if rain. Being that it should be cold enough later tomorrow afternoon and beyond, the question becomes how close to the coast will the snow shield be.
Radars are quiet now but we will keep an eye on this of course. In the meantime here is a look at the Canadian model RGEM and what it does. The RGEM is a model that is not often looked at but last winter it did surprisingly well so I want to pay a little attention to tonight.
CHEAP THRILL SNOW POSSIBILITY RGEM
The RGEM for the first time brings snow to Southern New Jersey, Delaware and over Long Island. Now granted the precip is light and would probably only amount to a cheap coating at best but this winter, that will seem like a burial by comparison! The GFS has a similar idea and so does the NAM model this afternoon though they are a little further east. Still those models too are trending westward.
CHEAP THRILL SNOW POSSIBILITY GFS
For inland areas, not too worry. The strong upper air disturbance/polar vortex will be moving across the area Sunday night into Monday morning and there could be a few snow showers or bursts of snow with that as the cold air arrives. Those too could whiten the ground in spots or perhaps a bit more in some places. Either way it is going to turn very cold Sunday night and it will be very cold all week. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees colder tomorrow, in the 30s. Monday through at least Thursday look for highs not out of the 20s during the day and in the teens and single digits at night.
With regards to the long range you may have noticed that I haven’t addressed the end of next week. All the models show a major storm off the east coast. 2 have big snows for us (GFS, Canadian). The European has a big storm too but it is much further south and would be more of a Middle Atlantic event with the low passing well south. You know which way this is going so until the European shifts northward (which it probably won’t) I’m not going to pay much attention to it.
The long long range shows a pattern change coming to a warmer look as the polar vortex reforms over the Arctic and the blocking pattern completely breaks down. So enjow the cheap thrill snow possibility while it lasts.
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