Standing Alone: Model Differences for Sunday
When looking at this afternoon’s model run the GFS stands out like a sore thumb with regards to a second storm coming up the coast for Sunday behind the first system for Friday night and early Saturday. Normally there would not be much room for two large storms back to back like this though it does occasionally happen. The GFS model is standing alone and when we lay the models side by side you can see the differences
What is happening is actually quite simple. This is all going to depend on the structure of the jet stream and how it reacts to a southern stream system. The GFS model says the vortex in the north picks up that system and partially phases it together which would create a deepening storm moving up the coast just offshore. The other models don’t do this as the vortex and the southern system keep the two systems separate, or they barely recognize the southern system at all. It stands to reason that based on overall performance that the other models may have the better idea and that the GFS model is just wrong.
Or is it? I think a lot is going to depend on how this first weather system Friday night and Saturday as it moves out to the northeast. More importantly is that the GFS has a strong disturbance coming into the west coast that eventually becomes a strong southern jet stream feature while the other models show either a weak system coming in..or not much of a system coming in at all. Given the recent model volatility which to me seems more volatile than usual, The GFS may right itself late this afternoon on its next run, or it may continue to play this game. If it does than it just means we move on to the nighttime runs tonight to see what they show. Its always fun around here!
Here is my video analysis of the afternoon GFS model
Winter is here! Don’t be without Meteorologist Joe Cioffi’s weather app. It is a complete weather app to suit your forecast needs. All the weather information you need is right on your phone. Android or I-phone, use it to keep track of all the latest weather information and forecasts. This weather app is also free of advertising so you don’t have to worry about security issues with your device. An accurate forecast and no worries that your device is being compromised.
Use it in conjunction with my website and my facebook and twitterand you have complete weather coverage of all the latest weather and the long range outlook. The website has been redone and upgraded. Its easy to use and everything is archived so you can see how well Joe does or doesn’t do when it comes to forecasts and outlooks.
Just click on the google play button or the apple store button on the sidebar for my app which is onMy Weather Concierge. Download the app for free. Subscribe to my forecasts on an ad free environment for just 99 cents a month.
Get my forecasts in the palm of your hand for less than the cost of a cup of Joe!