standing alone

Standing Alone: Model Differences for Sunday

Standing Alone: Model Differences for Sunday

When looking at this afternoon’s model run the GFS stands out like a sore thumb with regards to a second storm coming up the coast for Sunday behind the first system for Friday night and early Saturday. Normally there would not be much room for two large storms back to back like this though it does occasionally happen. The GFS model is standing alone and when we lay the models side by side you can see the differences

Standing Alone

standing alone

gem96 standing alone

euro96 standing alone

What is happening is actually quite simple. This is all going to depend on the structure of the jet stream and how it reacts to a southern stream system. The GFS model says the vortex in the north picks up that system and partially phases it together which would create a deepening storm moving up the coast just offshore. The other models don’t do this as the vortex and the southern system keep the two systems separate, or they barely recognize the southern system at all. It stands to reason that based on overall performance  that the other models may have the better idea and that the GFS model is just wrong.

Or is it? I think a lot is going to depend on how this first weather system Friday night and Saturday as it moves out to the northeast. More importantly is that the GFS has a strong disturbance coming into the west coast that eventually becomes a strong southern jet stream feature while the other models show either a weak system coming in..or not much of a system coming in at all. Given the recent model volatility which to me seems more volatile than usual, The GFS may right itself late this afternoon on its next run, or it may continue to play this game. If it does than it just means we move on to the nighttime runs tonight to see what they show. Its always fun around here!

Here is my video analysis of the afternoon GFS model








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standing alone