Refrigerator Repair is Complete!
Refrigerator repair began a few days ago and the refrigerator repair man has it in good working order. The breakdown of the polar vortex began last week with extremely warm air moving into the arctic regions. What this has done is to begin the process of displacing cold air southward into Canada and now into the Eastern United States. This is really the first real cold shot of air that is coming in right now that is taking temperatures down close to normal. The second and more impressive cold shot comes down Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday will be the coldest day with morning lows in the teens and daytime highs only in the 20s. Single digits are likely in places like Northeast Pennsylvania and the northern areas of the Hudson Valley and Northern Connecticut northward.
This is the National Weather Service forecast low temperature map for Tuesday morning. I think these numbers are a little too high so I would take them down by a few degrees. The core of the cold air moves out Tuesday morning so the highs Tuesday might be a bit higher than I am forecasting. It is a timing issue of the arrival of the cold air. If it comes in a little faster than Tuesday afternoon might be a bit warmer but then Monday temperatures will be a bit colder. Either way this is the coldest shot of air for the season so far.
Now as far as weather events are concerned there are 2 on the maps to consider for next week. The first will be Friday night and Saturday. Both the European and the GFS show low pressure from the Ohio Valley which redevelops on the coast. Cold air here will be marginal and precipitation amounts relatively light at this point are being indicated. There is colder air to the north and I wonder whether we could see something like a few days ago with a high to the north and cold air draining southward at low levels. The European and GFS are both remarkably the same which is unusual at this stage. We are still at the speculative point of the conversation on this as we are talking a week away. However it does reflect the refrigerator repair of the upper atmosphere that has occurred.
Now with regards to the second event the models have been signaling. I think this is going to boil down to where the North Atlantic Oscillation is in 10 days. The GFS is signaling a negative NAO while the European may be reacting to a more neutral or slightly positive NAO.
The gfs weather model has a far more blocky look to it than the European which will make all the difference in the world in terms of a coastal low or an inland low. We have a long way to go on this. Here is last night’s gfs video analysis.
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