Winter Storm Threat Increasing For The Northeast
It is still rather hard to imagine that after a day with temperatures in the 70s and record highs, that we are seeing the threat for the season’s first winter storm in the the northeast as we head into next week but indeed this is the case. Models have been very consistent in the last few days of showing cold air building into the northeast beginning Sunday night as the first cold front comes through.
Now from the get go the key to all of this has been the high to the north and whether it was going to move out quickly to the east which would have warmed everything up in a hurry or whether the high was going to take its time and build into Southeastern Canada and Northern New England which would keep cold air in place especially inland.
What has happened through each model run is that the models have gone the route of the colder look with the high holding back. Now I want to caution here that the cold air we are seeing is rather impressive considering how warm the atmosphere has been but it is going to be shallow on the southern end of this. Low pressure to the west is what is left of a winter storm from the southwest and is it is not going to develop into a deep system which is a going to favor a colder solution overall.
By Tuesday morning it appears the coast is mostly rain but it is frozen and freezing precipitation just inland and northeast. The high is still holding in Northern Maine Tuesday morning which is going to hold warm air in for at least awhile. Here are the various model snow maps from the GFS model to the Canadian model
In my view it is always safe to take the GFS snow maps and cut the amounts in half. The Canadian model above to me has a look that makes more sense with perhaps a coating to an inch across parts of Central New Jersey and Long Island northward with amounts increasing as you head into the Hudson Valley and northward from there. The heavier snow line wold basically line up from Route 80 across Pennsylvania and New Jersey northward.
It should be also noted here that the European is the warmest of the three models and would keep snows mainly North of New York City and Northern New Jersey completely and basically line up the storm north and northeast of route 84 in NY and Southern New England and keeping snow and winter storm conditions completely out of Pennsylvania entirely.
This is an early look at things and we will update this throughout the day. I’m going to be working Verizon FiOS1 News this evening for Long Island, New Jersey, and the Hudson Valley and on PIX11 News Sunday night to keep you updated on all of this.
Today’s weather video on the short range and on the dangerous pattern developing into January.
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