Snow Making Anyone? JOESTRADAMUS Long Range
Snow making is about the only way anyone is going to get snow around here until further notice. In fact ski resorts looking for snow in the northeast will have about 2 or 3 days at most to make snow before the cold air (such as it is) comes in next weekend and pulls out. I thought we would take a look at the 18z GFS model since we had nothing else better to and it is likely that the model would probably try and do something that we won’t necessarily believe.
This model run is going back to a solution showed a few days ago which the European picked up on but both models lost this idea awhile ago. This doesn’t seem to have any particular support. Even if this is right it meas low pressure goes out to the east but it does amplify the cold shot for next weekend especially Saturday night and Sunday. None of the models showed any indication of this in the prior run. There wasn’t even a hint of this. Therefore we do not believe this idea. If there is a secondary disturbance in the flow it is likely to be much weaker and of little consequence. But as always in this torturous pattern we will wait for six hours to watch the models take this all away!
The reason why the model is doing this can be seen at the 18,000 ft jet stream level and the primary difference is what happens off the west coast. The new run has a different complexion off the west coast which may, quite simply wrong. Look at the difference between the 2 runs. By cutting off that storm off Southern California it allows the ridge in the west to be strong and much further left than the prior runs.
Now to make this fiction even more sci-fi ish is that as we move into Christmas week, Low pressure closes off in Eastern Canada. If this is correct it would mean the ridge in the east will be suppressed to some degree and not fly up like prior ridges, a t least not until it pulls out.
Now moving along the European model run did have this idea earlier today at day 10. It showed a small closed low in Eastern Canada with a colder look in the Northeast because of it. The next trough is coming out of the Rockies now at this point.
Now ultimately the weak block in Eastern Canada pulls out which means the next system from the Rockies winds up in the Great Lakes and produces a soaking rain on the December 23rd and into Early morning Christmas Eve in the east. This part of the equation at least makes a little bit of sense
In the end I anticipated the GFS doing something different just to torture cold and snow lovers and I’m sure it gets all undone in another 6 hours. It seems like the model is almost taking joy in doing this. I will of course be waiting tonight to see what science fiction adventure is shown on the next run.