Weather Forecast Model & Negative N.A.O
Weather forecast model GFS overnight and weather forecast model European from Monday seem to be centering on the idea that there will be some transient blocking developing as we head past mid month. Here is today’s video analysis on the GFS weather forecast model run.
Now how real all this is remains to be seen. There appears to be warming going on over the arctic regions beginning around day 7 and lasting through day 16. This would suggest that more seasonal temperatures will return to the United States midwest in east in time. The GFS weather forecast model also is sending a series of storms across the Great Lakes with each one bringing down a progressively colder shot of air. However the arctic remains cut off so this would be Canadian air and not true arctic air. Still the models seem to suggesting that the dominating ridge in the east may take a break for awhile down the road.
We would caution that this is one run of the GFS and a couple of European runs that have done this. The ensembles which are a series of runs for each model with different parameters somewhat support this idea. We would like to see continued confirmation of this over the next several days to gain some confidence that something is actually happening. We have been lead down this road before only to have the dominant el nino pattern return. We will evaluate the European run from the overnight later this morning to see if it carries along with the same idea. In the short range we will continue with above normal temperatures culminating with the possibility of record highs this weekend. Check the local forecast links below for more specific information concerning the short range forecast.