Plumbing Long Range Looks Like Split “Pipes”
We have a great start to the day here and it looks like the weekend is going to continue to be rather uneventful other than a cold front coming through early Sunday morning followed by a shot of cold air for Sunday afternoon and lasting through Tuesday. Temperatures are going to be below normal to start Thanksgiving week.
Meanwhile on the Long range front you might recall a few days ago that the models were all pointing to a split flow developing from the East Pacific to off the east coast. What a split flow means is you have 2 jet streams with a northern jet that brings down cold air and a subtropical southern jetstream that brings in the moisture. It is like having 2 set of pipes in your plumbing. One brings hot water and the other cold and how they mix together determines how hot or how cold the water is. Same idea in the atmosphere. Depending on which jet is stronger determines what kind of weather we have be it snow or rain..wet or dry..warmer or colder…and any combination you can come up with. Weather forecasting models continue to show this idea and our video this morning touches on both the long range and the short range.
This is from the overnight model run of the gfs which was fairly consistent with the prior model run. The models keep showing a cold front approaching next weekend with rain that changes to snow in the colder air. Im not sold on this yet because more often than not the cold air cuts off the moisture and the rain just ends before a change over. There would have to be some sort of wave that develops on the front to make things interesting. Right now we are going to treat this for what it is worth and not begin to get wrapped up over it until signs tell us otherwise.
If you want more on the subtropical jet take a look at this video i did a couple of days ago about the developing pattern. It sets it up pretty well.
We have the latest on the snow going on in the midwest and you can check that out from the links below.