Rain is headed our way for Wednesday and it appears to be a good solid soaking rain of 1 to 2 inches in most places. Even though the storm system is tracking well to our west the injection of tropical moisture, a good strong southeast flow from the Atlantic, and a strong upper air trough and we have the set up for a solid rainfall over the course of about 18 hours.
The satellite loop below shows the cold front coming through in the east and the developing non tropical Gulf of Mexico storm which is begin enhanced by the remnants of Hurricane Patricia. Strong moisture inflow is occurring in Louisiana today where the rains will be heaviest.
The weather here will be dry through Tuesday night with rain arriving by Wednesday morning. While the bulk of the tropical moisture goes west there is a secondary plume of moisture that develops east of the Appalachians which gradually increases in intensity and coverage.
Rain should become heavy at times by midday Wednesday and continue into Wednesday night. The strong front will sweep through late Wednesday night with dry air arriving on Thursday and chillier air arriving for Friday and the start of next weekend.
Meanwhile down south the rains continue today with another 4 to 8 inches of rain probable across much of Louisiana and Eastern Texas as well as Southern Mississippi and Alabama to the Florida Panhandle. The rest of Southeast and South Texas is seeing improving weather conditions today.
All the other models seem to be lining up the same way except the European which does less with the rains east of the Appalachians and slower by about 6 to 8 hours. The rainfall amounts on the European are on the lower end of the range, around an inch or so total. I think the more robust gfs model may be more correct this time.
This could be a setup where there could be some locally higher amounts especially if a few thunderstorms get embedded into the mix.
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