European Model Now Backs Off From a Miserable Saturday

The performance of the European model was stellar for Hurricane Joaquin but it is by no means perfect. Take my early morning post as a perfect examples that while some models are better than others not all models are perfect and not all models are good in all situations. The European for several runs was insisting that Saturday could be a problem with rain and some wind while the other models were insisting the other extreme that Saturday would be fine with nothing more than some early leftover clouds.

Today’s European run has completely backed away from the idea of a miserable Saturday. While it develops a wave on the front the wave on the European is way to the south.

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The map on the top is the new European verses yesterday. Now the timing is off by 12 hours because only 24 hour increments are publically available. Look at the difference in where the surface low is now verses the overnight run. It is much further south. Now the much further south solution puts Virginia southward into South Carolina in line for more substantial rain which is something they do not need especially in South Carolina. Actually the model takes that low off the southeast US coast and leaves it there for a few days.

The bottom line for us here is that the outlook for the weekend looks good. I didn’t back away from my original forecast though the European model did give me some pause as to how to approach all this. I still don’t want to rule out the possibility completely but based on what Im seeing here and what the other models are doing it looks like we should be fine for the weekend overall with just issues with clouds and temperatures. Saturday will be quite cool with highs probably only in the upper 50s to lower 60s at best Sunday should be a little warmer..middle to upper 60s. Monday Columbus day we should be in the 70s with sunshine barring a last minute shift the other way.

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