JOESTRADAMUS On the Short & Long Range: Changing to Colder Longer Term?





JOESTRADAMUS is going to take on the short and long range now that the hurricane is out of the forecast picture and the noreaster we have been experience begins to slowly wind down. The one upside of the last 7 days which includes the rain from the noreaster we experienced that last couple of days is the rainfall we got which was extremely beneficial and did a good job in making a big dent in the drought conditions we have experienced since May. Rainfall was less than desirable in the Lower Hudson Valley and Western Connecticut but elsewhere from Southern New England to Southern New Jersey and Pennsylvania 2 to 4 inches plus rain were commonplace and some areas in Central and Southern New Jersey did quite well.

During the last 2 days most areas got 1 to 2 inches with lesser amounts north and northeast. The noreaster will continue to affect coastal areas with coastal flooding and beach erosion into Monday with rough ocean seas and higher than normal tides. However sky conditions will continue to improve with some sun breaking through the clouds in many areas on Sunday. rainfall2

As far as next week goes it looks fairly quiet with a return to seasonal temperatures and dry conditions for much of this coming week. The next cold front probably arrives here sometime on Friday and with it the chance for some showers followed by slightly cooler dry air for next weekend. The rain of this past week might be an indication that the inactive pattern we have been in may be starting to turn to something a little more active down the road.


The long range upper air pattern is looking much different with the ridge in the east gone. We also have the beginnings of a strengthening jet in the Pacific coming into the northwestern US. The European appears to be showing the pattern in some sort of transition through its run as it seems to be evolving into something different as well beyond day 10.


Transitioning to what is the big question. The GFS is going a similar route except with a flatter ridge over Texas and stronger westerly winds across the United States.


The last number of GFS runs have been trying to show a deep trough and potential storminess late next week which of course is way out there. The GFS transitions to a very deep trough in the east which would mean probably the first shot of cold air moving into the Great Lakes and the Eastern States.


Now whether this means a simple cold front or something more in the form of a developing low somewhere is questionable. Also questionable is whether this is actually real. There are longer term signals which say it is but we will continue to watch how this all evolves. And before anyone asks the answer is yes this probably would mean that some places in the northern areas would see frosts, freezes, and maybe the first flakes of the season (flakes being singular not something you shovel). Mid October would be about that time anyway. Longer term winter lovers might see this and start salivating. It is way to early for that.

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