First off we need to remember that regardless of what Hurricane Joaquin does the weather into Saturday here doesn’t look especially good as we have a very strong northeast flow thanks to high pressure to the north and lower pressures southward along the east coast down into the Bahamas with Hurricane Joaquin. The hurricane is not directly causing this and we would be experiencing noreaster like conditions regardless of there being a hurricane or not.
We have a COASTAL FLOOD WATCH up for Long Island south and north shores and for New Jersey through Saturday afternoon. Tides are going to run 1 foot above normal today and at least 1 to 2 feet or even a little higher Friday and Saturday at the high tides. The prolonged easterly flow is a problem as the water continues to build higher after each high tide and less goes out at each low tide. Moderate coastal flooding is possible into the weekend. Gale Warnings are in effect along the coast. Latest tidal and marine information is on the marine forecast page with interactive wind and tide widgets for you.
I don’t foresee much rain today the main frontal boundry south into Virginia. Some rain is likely to move northward during tonight and on Friday but the heaviest rain should be to our south.Then the rain area drops southward Friday night and Saturday and as the hurricane takes the track offshore, the heavy rains here may not materialize. The GFS model trended further east overnight from what we saw at midnight last night. and this goes along with the Europeans idea which has now shown an out to sea solution for 4 runs in a row. It is really become very hard to ignore as models all begin to shift in this direction. We will need 1 or 2 more model cycles to confirm this trend. But it is starting to look that way.
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