JOESTRADAMUS noticed yesterday that there was a lot of uncertainty regarding this coming week and this morning he sees that all three global models  show drought breaking rains this week. Now I would just say right off the bat that we should take these amounts and cut them in half which btw still says 2 to 3 inches at least for everyone.

gfsprecip gemprecipVarious model solutions have it raining for days, nor’easter conditions, coastal flooding, and a few other things so I’m just basically doing a summary here of what the models point to. Lets say for sure that nothing happens today other than clouds and some sunshine with this being the 14th consecutive day of no rain. The original prediction I made was 16 and it looks like it will get to 15 tomorrow and I will fall one day short.

Back to this week. Tuesday a cold front comes through and there will be a wave developing on the coast to enhance some of the showers with that front so Tuesday looks like some places could see a decent soaking. Beyond Tuesday all the models focus on various dynamics in the east that we have not see for months. This map of the upper air is for Wednesday evening.


We had a similar set up this weekend where this upper trough was much weaker and wound up falling apart. This time it appears the opposite will happen where this trough gets strengthened with more energy coming into the east. 48 hours after this gfs144

This is for Friday evening of this coming week. All the models seem to have some variation of this idea. The Canadian has a deeper and more left solution that actually results in more rain here while the European and GFS are more coastal but the models are all left of previous runs. Certainly they all suggest nor’easter conditions developing during this week with a prolonged onshore flow beginning Wednesday and lasting into next weekend along with the potential for coastal flooding and beach erosion especially coming off the high tide cycle and a full moon.

gfs144So there we have it from the latest overnight runs. Enjoy your Sunday as it may finally look like the drought is going to break this week and it could do it rather impressively if this all plays out as shown.

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