The weekend weather forecast is another puzzle and the first of the nighttime models is in. Remember I have said many times in the past few weeks that when you are in a drought, the approach should be that it needs to be proven that we are going to get rain. Well the NAM is in and guess what? It shows no rain here at all now into Monday morning.
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The nam has taken on the look of the European. This is the radar presentation of the NAM beginning Sunday night 8pm and taking us overnight into Monday morning. This model shows hardly any rain at all as what moisture there is seems to arc around the edge of the high as it moves offshore! The main difference between this model and the GFS is that no surface low develops and that you basically get some over running moisture that sweeps inland and around the high along the spine of the mountains. No organized or even a weak organized low can be found. This would mean no rain or at worst a passing shower Sunday night into Monday morning. The onshore flow goes from northeast to southeast to south over time which may be a little off but the bottom line is there is no organized rain anywhere close!


The GFS which has been the most aggressive with any rain (such as it is) is beginning to go in the direction of the European from yesterday which had this idea in mind for the last several runs. Again without any surface low, and very weak support aloft which is migrating westward rather than lifting northward, it is hard to see how any rain of consequence will fall. Still this weekend won’t be picture perfect as clouds will be an issue and some coastal drizzle (big deal) might also get into the mix in some places. Other than that and barring a big model shift. It appears that if the NAM is correct the dry streak which Friday will make 12, might continue into Tuesday of next week bringing it to 16 days without any rain…which is what the long range was showing us 12 days ago!

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