IDA DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA, WATCHING THE GULF OF MEXICO

Tropical Storm Ida has now been downgraded to a Tropical Depression IDA and as we see on the satellite loop below it really has degenerated considerably since yesterday. Strong westerly shear and dry air have become a big problem as it has with almost every tropical storm out in this region this year. This is also another example of what happens with wind shear and how models can predict wind shear to disappear and it very often does not. Also once storms get sheared apart only ideal conditions seem to bring them back. Models continually show decreasing shear and Ida may eventually resume a westward track over time as a subtropical ridge is forecast to build to the north of the system. However it has to survive first and there is a fair chance that it won’t.

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 44.9W
ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
nhcprog

The loop shows the upper trough in the Atlantic that holds Tropical Depression IDA in its clutches however that trough is forecast to lift out rapidly over the next 24 hours so we will see what happens at that point. Again there is every chance that Tropical Depression IDA may be a remnant low before too long.

 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/ft-animated.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-animated.gif

Low pressure is going to develop over the east coast and while this has no tropical characteristics nor is development expected, it will interact with high pressure to the north to produce a strong onshore flow this weekend and possibly some rain though there are big quesiton marks about that.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-animated.gif

The visible satellite loop above shows disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean which is forecast to move northward into the Central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. This has a shot in developing into a tropical cyclone once it moves northward where conditions may be a little more favorable for development.

Check the latest marine forecast for our area and the local forecast for what it all means. Small Craft Advisories are going to be posted for us for the weekend as rough ocean conditions develop from an onshore flow.

Be sure to download my weather app and subscribe to my forecasts. The app is free and the subscription is just 99 cents a month. The app is free of advertisement and there are no tracking or security issues.