Autumn arrives with a continuation of the dry weather pattern we have been in. Today is the 10th day in a row without rain and this streak will go to at least 15 if not longer as I am becoming increasingly convinced that it may never rain again here!

First we have today and tomorrow which will feature a good deal of sunshine and above normal highs in the mid to upper 70s as the onshore flow relaxes for 2 days and the sun can go to work without much of an ocean flow. A cold front is set to come in Thursday night with not much other than clouds but then we go back to a northeast wind for Friday and into the weekend as another high builds to the north. While this will mean another onshore flow set up, other than some clouds (especially on Sunday) the weather should be rain free through the weekend.

The rain threat from the south remains elusive. Low pressure off the southeast coast will edge northward however it keeps taking longer and longer to move northward. It then becomes a race between that moisture lifting northward and the next cold front from the northwest arriving to push it out. The gfs gets the rain only so far north before it shoves it to the east.


When you look at the upper air pattern here the main jet stream runs west to weas across Southern Canada with virtually no flow from the northeast US southward. If anything with a trough back in Texas the winds from the Carolinas eastward are light westerly. You can barely find any support at all for this except at lower levels. Rain gets to Southern New Jersey Sunday afternoon before it gets pushed out to the east.

As far as chilly autumn weather (and I mean really chilly autumn weather) there are model indications of some sort of pattern flip coming once we get into October but I haven’t really been able to get a good sense of where we are going because long range models play off all sorts of non existent hurricane development among other things and I want to get a better feel after I see several clean model runs. I just wonder how many days will this rain free streak run before coming to an end.

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