We have another round of record highs to get through today and it would not be a surprise to see temperatures reach the middle 90s. The only thing that might hold it back are clouds which could arrive on the scene in some areas during the afternoon. However the launching pad is already set with temps this morning in the middle 70s. Late this afternoon showers and thunderstorms could develop ahead of a cold front but that front is not going to move through on early Thursday morning. My suspicion is that any storms ahead of this will be clustered and scattered around the area so i’m hoping everyone sees something from the lead area but it is quite possible that some of you may miss out.
The second area is the more important one because that will be more widespread in nature. A wave is going to develop on the front and hopefully we can grind out an inch or 2 of rain out of this. I have repeatedly said over the last few days how in the few chances we have had for rain in the last few months, models have underperformed; that is we wind up with much less than forecast. Since the models are forecasting 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts, it is wise to perhaps bank on half of this and hope that it turns out to be as modeled.
I don’t want to sound pessimistic about this but when in a dry pattern this is what happens. When you are in a wet pattern, it winds up the other way. At the end of the day, it is rain and we need rain..lots of it. At least 6 inches of rain in most areas along the coastal plain to get us back close to average for the year. We don’t want it all at once. Rain needs to be spread out over a few days.
Once the rain ends early Friday morning weather conditions improve. I am still thinking there could be another round of rain late Saturday into Sunday morning as a strong upper air disturbance swings out of the midwest. We will have more on this later today.
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